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The Tanzania Economic Growth will soften in 2015 Due to General Elections

13 Aug

Tanzania Rig Zone

According to BMI Research;  a market leader in providing business intelligence to East & Central Africa’s top companies and leading executives. The Tanzania GDP will drop by 0.5% in 2015 comparing to 2014 results.

The Tanzania Quaterly Country Risk Report published on 23rd June 2015, provide a robust forecasts and analysis that will help you make the right business decisions.

Core Views

  • Uncertainty will characterize Tanzania’s political climate over the coming months as the general election on October 25 approaches. We believe key investment decisions – particularly in the energy sector – are likely to be delayed until the dust from the election has settled and policy direction becomes clearer.

  • Economic growth in Tanzania will soften in 2015 as October’s general elections and continued policy uncertainty in the energy sector weigh on investment. We are forecasting real GDP to expand by 6.4% in 2015 compared to 6.9% in 2014.

  • Tanzania will undergo a modest improvement in its external position over the next two years as lower oil prices help to reduce the country’s hefty imported fuel bill. Despite this short term adjustment, high import demand and sluggish growth in exports will see the current account balance remain deep in red.

Major Forecast Changes: There is NO Major Forecast Changes

Key Risks To Outlook

  • A major risk to our economic outlook comes from the weather. Poor rains would not only exacerbate tight food supplies (food price inflation was the major driver of rapidly rising headline inflation in 2011) but would also once again hamper hydroelectricity production, raising costs for businesses and, by extension, consumers.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2016)
Indicator                                                   2013e       2014e      2015f     2016f   
BMI Real GDP growth, % y-o-y                     8.2           6.9          6.4         6.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn                                   44.2          48.9        49.7        52.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop            5.6            4.8         4.9          6.0
Exchange rate TZS/USD, eop                        1,590.00    1,733.00  1,930.00  2,007.20
Budget balance, % of GDP                            -3.6             -2.8         -4.1         -3.4
Current account balance, % of GDP                -10.6          -9.7         -8.7          -8.7
SOURCES: Tanzania National Sources / BMI
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Posted by on August 13, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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